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FutureMetrics:白皮书分析了韩国工业木屑颗粒和公用事业
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近年来,韩国工业木屑颗粒的需求迅速增长,预计未来十年将大幅增长。这份简短的白皮书讨论了为什么这种增长正在发生,预计将继续下去。该文件还显示了为什么韩国公用事业公
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近年来,韩国工业木屑颗粒的需求迅速增长,预计未来十年将大幅增长。这份简短的白皮书讨论了为什么这种增长正在发生,预计将继续下去。该文件还显示了为什么韩国公用事业公司用于确保木屑颗粒燃料安全的短期招标策略在可预见的将来仍会继续使用,尽管缺乏长期供应协议会面临很多挑战。

Demand for industrial wood pellets in S. Korea has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to grow significantly over the next half decade. This brief white paper discusses why that growth is happening and is expected to continue. The paper also shows why the short-term tendering strategy that is used by S. Korean utilities for securing wood pellet fuel may remain in use for the foreseeable future despite the challenges that the absence of long-term agreements place on the supply side.

工业木屑颗粒 - 需求基于政策

Industrial Wood Pellets – Demand is based on policy

工业木屑颗粒是用于替代大型煤电厂中的粉煤燃料。全球几乎所有的大型煤电厂都是基于煤粉(PC)设计的。木屑颗粒容易粉碎,体积相对较小,发电厂可以将煤与木屑颗粒共烧,或使用100%的木屑颗粒,并且不会降低输出量或可靠性。

Industrial wood pellets are used to substitute for coal in large utility power stations that use pulverized fuel systems. Almost all large utility coal plants around the world are based on pulverized coal (PC) designs. Wood pellets easily pulverize and, with relatively minor and well-established modifications, the power plant can co-fire wood pellets with coal or use 100% wood pellets and have no loss of output or reliability .

用颗粒替代煤的动机是降低二氧化碳排放量,增加可再生能源发电量的比例。每兆瓦时(MWh)木屑颗粒燃料比煤炭更昂贵,但显着降低了二氧化碳排放。因此,在每个实现发电站共烧或完全燃烧木屑颗粒的国家,都有政策支持用颗粒替代煤炭。大多数政策要么鼓励减少二氧化碳排放,要么惩罚过度排放。

The motivation for substituting pellets for coal is to lower CO2 emissions and increase the proportion of power generated from renewable energy. Wood pellet fuel is costlier per megawatt-hour (MWh) generated than coal but significantly lowers CO2 emissions. Therefore, in every country that has power stations that are co-firing or full-firing wood pellets there is policy that supports the strategy of pelletsfor-coal substitution. Most policies either provide incentives for the reduction in CO2 emissions or penalize those emissions.

韩国的政策并没有明确指出二氧化碳减排。它基于可再生能源配额制(RPS),要求主要的公用事业要达到一定的可再生能源发电比例。下面更详细地讨论如何实施该政策。全球工业木屑颗粒市场起源于欧洲。但欧盟和英国工业木屑颗粒市场需求的增长即将结束。下图显示了2025年需求的历史增长和需求预测。

S. Korea’s policy does not explicitly target CO2 reduction. It is based on a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that places requirements on the major utilities to generate a proportion of their electricity from renewable sources. How that policy is implemented is discussed in more detail below. The global industrial wood pellet market had its genesis in Europe. But the growth in demand for industrial wood pellets in the EU and UK markets is nearing an end. The chart below shows the historical growth in demand and the forecast for demand to 2025.

据预测,2019年以后,日本和韩国的预期需求将显著增长。

As the forecast shows, the expected significant demand growth after 2019 is in Japan and S. Korea.

韩国RPS和工业木屑颗粒需求

The Korean RPS and Demand for Industrial Wood Pellets

韩国以可再生能源配额制(RPS)来指导发电行业。RPS计划要求在2012-2024年期间,13家最大的电力公司(装机容量大于500兆瓦)要稳步增加其发电总量的可再生能源比例。下表显示了每年所需的可再生能源电力比例。

S. Korea is guiding the power generation industry with a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). The RPS program requires the 13 largest power companies (with installed power capacity larger than 500 MW) to steadily increase their renewable energy mix in total power generation over the period from 2012-2024. The table below shows the annual required proportion of power that has to be generated from renewable sources.

电力公司实现他们的RPS目标,可以通过以下方式:

For power companies to meet their RPS targets they can:

  • 自行投资可再生能源装置,并获得可再生能源证书或RECs(基于可再生能源产生的发电量,可再生能源证书(Renewable Energy Certificates, RECs)

    Invest in renewable energy installations themselves and receive renewable energy certificates or RECs (RECs are issued based on the MWh’s generated from renewable sources)

  • 购买市场上的RECs以履行其义务。

    Purchase RECs on the market to meet their obligation.

电力公司必须每年向新能源和可再生能源中心(KNERC)提交产生或购买的RECs总量。如果电力公司没有按RPS要求提交所需的RECs数量,可再生能源中心将罚款。罚款相当于该年度RECs平均市场价格的150%。

The power companies must submit the total RECs both generated or purchased to the New and Renewable Energy Center (KNERC) on an annual basis. If the power company fails to present the required number of RECs based on the RPS mandate, KNERC applies a financial fine. The penalty is equal to 150% of the average market price of the RECs for that year.

一些可再生能源电力正由新的风力和太阳能装置产生。然而,韩国电力需求的增长以及燃煤发电厂转换成使用颗粒的成本相对较低,导致木屑颗粒共烧的迅速增长。热量产生的电力是基础负荷,韩国有一个庞大和不断增长的工业基础,需要24/7的电力。下图3显示,韩国要求其煤电厂要具备非常高的可用性。

Some of that renewable power is being generated from new wind and solar installations. However, the growth in the S. Korean demand for electricity and the relatively low cost to modify a PC power plant to use pellets has resulted in a rapid increase in wood pellet co-firing. Thermally generated power is baseload and S. Korea has a large and growing industrial base that demands 24/7 power. The chart below3 shows that S. Korea demands that its coal power stations run at very high availability.

但为什么韩国电力公司(gencos)会使用更高成本的木屑颗粒燃料?是什么推动了韩国对工业木屑颗粒的需求?

But why would S. Korean generating companies (gencos) use the higher cost wood pellet fuel? What is driving the S. Korean demand for industrial wood pellets?

生产和销售RECs的价格和不合规的潜在成本。

It is the price of producing and selling RECs and the potential cost of non-compliance.

下表显示,从2015年到2016年,RECs产量增长了近36%。但即使供应量增加,RECs的价格也有所上涨。2015-2016年的平均价格上涨了74%,相当于约150美元/兆瓦时。这意味着韩国对RECs显着的超额需求。

The table below shows that the volume of RECs produced increased by almost 36% from 2015 to 2016. Yet even as supply has increased, the price of RECs has also increased. The average price from 2015 to 2016 increased by 74% to the equivalent of about $150/MWh. This implies a significant excess demand for RECs in S. Korea.

从可再生燃料产生的每兆瓦时的REC 是150美元,电力销售价格高于批发电力的现货价格。因此,即使考虑到使用木屑颗粒燃料产生的成本较高,并增加有效和可靠地共烧颗粒所需的转换摊销成本,韩国燃煤电厂可以通过共烧它们底线。

$150 per REC received per megawatt-hour generated from renewable fuel is a much higher rate for power sales then the spot price for wholesale electric power. Therefore, even after accounting for the higher cost of generation from using wood pellet fuel and adding in the estimated amortized cost of the modifications needed to efficiently and reliably co-fire pellets, S. Korean PC power plants can improve their bottom line by co-firing.

FutureMetrics估算了一个典型的/假设的韩国电厂的平准化能源成本(LCOE),并估算了共烧木屑颗粒的LCOE的增加。分析显示,在目前的REC价格下,韩国公用事业公司将通过提高共烧率来显着增加平均净收入。

FutureMetrics has estimated the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for a typical/hypothetical S. Korean power plant and has estimated the incremental increase in LCOE from co-firing wood pellets. The analysis shows that at current REC prices, S. Korean utilities will significantly increase the net of their average revenue over the cost of generation by increasing their co-firing rates.

下图中的图表显示了韩国近期的颗粒需求以及预测需求。预测的下线是基于共烧率会大幅增高,到2024年,RPS要求从目前的4%增加到10%。上线显示了预计的木屑颗粒需求,因为宣布燃煤电厂将使用100%的木屑颗粒。

This is already happening. The chart on the next page shows the recent demand for pellets in S. Korea and the forecast demand. The lower line in the forecast is based on the expected ramp-up of co-firing as the RPS requirement moves from its current 4% to 10% in 2024. The upper line shows the expected wood pellet demand given the announced PC power plants that will be using 100% wood pellets.

图表显示了通过在燃煤电厂中使用颗粒来满足RPS要求的隐含比例。 2019-2020年,当全烧颗粒电厂上线时,颗粒需求的迅速增长,估计通过颗粒满足的RPS要求得比例将达到70%左右。2024年,当可再生能源的RPS比例达到10%时,通过颗粒满足的可再生能源需求量估计为56%。

Note also that the chart shows the implied percent of the RPS requirement that is satisfied by using pellets in the PC power plants . The rapid increase in pellet demand as the full-firing plants come online in 2019-2020 takes the estimated proportion of the RPS requirement satisfied by pellets to about 70%. In 2024, when the RPS proportion for renewables hits 10%, the estimated portion of the renewable requirement met by pellets is 56%.

REC价格和韩国需求

REC Prices and S. Korean Demand

如上所述,收入超过成本的净额正在推动韩国公用事业公司使用木屑颗粒用于发电。下表显示了一个假设的韩国燃煤电厂会计例子。下面的分析是假设所有的可再生能源比例必须通过电厂的满足。如上图所示,一些RPS的配额将通过其他形式满足,如风能和太阳能。

As noted above, the net of revenue over costs is driving the move by S. Korean utilities into the use of wood pellets for power generation. The tables below show an example of a hypothetical S. Korean PC power station’s accounting.The analysis below assumes that all of the renewable obligation has to be satisfied by the power plant. As the chart above implies, some of the RPS obligation will be satisfied by other forms of generations such as wind and solar.

下面的第一个表格显示了2018年一个100%用煤的煤炭电厂的产出。2018年可再生能源所需电力比例为4.5%,该发电厂的可再生能源产量为零。鉴于该模型的假设,该公用事业公司在2018年期间的罚款约2740万美元。

The first table below shows the outcome for a hypothetical power plant that is generating with 100% coal in 2018. The 2018 proportion of power required from renewables is 4.5% and this power plant is generating zero percent from renewables. Given the assumptions in the model, the utility is paying a fine of about $27.4 million in 2018.

如果没扣除不能生产罚款或购买15万合规所需的RECs费用,该电厂本来盈利约为2.96美元/兆瓦时。扣除罚款成本后,该厂约为-5.26美元/兆瓦时。

This hypothetical plant would have been making a profit of about $2.96/MWh if it were not for the fine for failing to generate or purchase RECs equal to the 150,000 needed for compliance. After subtracting the cost of the fine, the plant is in the red by about $5.26/MWh.




 
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